start draft on two-type approximation

diff --git a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
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+Title: The Two-Type Taxonomy Is a Useful Approximation for a More Detailed Causal Model
+Date: 2022-03-30 05:00
+Category: commentary
+Tags: causality, two-type taxonomy
+Status: draft
+
+A lot of people tend to balk when first hearing about the [two-type taxonomy of male-to-female transsexualism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blanchard's_transsexualism_typology). What, one scoffs, you're saying _all_ trans women are exactly one of these two things? It seems at once both too simple and too specific.
+
+In some ways, it's a fair complaint! Psychology is _complicated_; every human is their own unique snowflake. But it would be impossible to navigate the world using the "every human is their own unique _maximum-entropy_ snowflake" theory.
+
+categories, clusters, diagnoses, taxons
+
+No one matches any particular clinical-profile stereotype _exactly_, but [the world makes more sense when you have language for theoretical abstractions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions) like ["comas"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/11/does-the-glasgow-coma-scale-exist-do-comas/) or "depression" or "bipolar disorder"—or "autogynephilia".
+
+
+![transition causal graph](/images/transition_dag.svg)
+
+Let me explain. 
+
+
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph
+
+[people tend to balk at the two-type taxonomy: are you really saying there are two and only two types?!]
+
+[the taxonomy can emerge as a shorthand for a complicated causal graph]
+
+[What are the reasons transitioning could possibly make sense to someone?—]
+
+[1. actually being really feminine]
+
+[2. beautiful pure self-identity thing related to AGP]
+
+[3. cultural/ideological factors]
+
+
+_(Thanks to the immortal [Tailcalled](https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/) for discussion.)_

diff --git a/content/images/transition_dag.svg b/content/images/transition_dag.svg
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