check in ... and thinking about an advance

Given that a lot of the unwritten sections are in pt. 4 and 6, I'm
thinking that I should prioritize getting a pt. 2 draft filled out, so
that I can polish and publish pts. 2 and 3 sooner (without 4–6 having
been done yet). It impose a little bit of communication overhead on my
friends re: clearances, but probably not insufferably much.

For now, I should just focus on cranking out 1000-wordcount days
(tomorrow, and the 27–31) as planned, but on 2 April, maybe I should
think about what it would look like to shove pt. 2 and 3 out the door
early?

So much time pressure in the current year.

diff --git a/content/drafts/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer.md b/content/drafts/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer.md
index d13488a..1fcf9e3 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer.md
+++ b/content/drafts/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer.md
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 Title: Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
 Author: Zack M. Davis
-Date: 2023-01-01 05:00
+Date: 2023-05-01 05:00
 Category: commentary
 Tags: autogynephilia, bullet-biting, cathartic, epistemic horror, personal, sex differences, Star Trek, Julia Serano, Eliezer Yudkowsky, two-type taxonomy
 Status: draft
@@ -557,7 +557,7 @@ That is, when factorizing a joint probability distribution into a Bayesian netwo
 
 [^koller-and-friedman-ii]: Daphne Koller and Nir Friedman, _Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques_, §18.3.5: "Understanding the Bayesian Score".
 
-I thought this shed some light on my recent frustrations. People are pretty observant about what other people are like. If prompted appropriately, they know how to anticipate the ways in which trans women are different from cis women. The part of them that talked just didn't see the problem with trying to represent the knowledge using a variable ordering that put "biological sex" closer to last than first. And I didn't think that was what the causal graph looked like.
+I thought this shed some light on my recent frustrations. People are pretty observant about what other people are like. If prompted appropriately, they know how to anticipate the ways in which trans women are different from cis women. The part of them that talked just didn't see the problem with trying to represent this knowledge (about physiological males with male-typical interests and personalities whose female gender identities seem closely intertwined with their gynephilic sexuality) using a variable ordering that put "biological sex" closer to last than first. And I just didn't think that was what the causal graph looked like.
 
 In another post, I collected links to Bailey, Lawrence, Vitale, and Brown's separate explanations of the two-type taxonomy:
 
@@ -752,4 +752,4 @@ At standup meeting on my last day, I told my coworkers that I was taking a sabba
 
 [TODO: ... continue harvesting email to see what happened in April]
 
-[TODO: credit assignment ritual ($18200 credit-assignment ritual): $5K to Michael, $1200 each to trans widow friend, 3 care team members (Alicorn Sarah Anna), Ziz, Olivia, and Sophia, $400 each to Steve, A.M., Watson, "Wilhelm", Jonah, James, Ben, Kevin, Alexei (declined), Andrew, Divia, Lex, Devi]
+[TODO: credit assignment ritual ($18200 credit-assignment ritual): $5K to Michael, $1200 each to "Chaya", 3 care team members (Alicorn Sarah Anna), Ziz, "Helen", and Sophia, $400 each to Steve, A.M., Watson, "Wilhelm", Jonah, James, Ben, Kevin, Alexei (declined), Andrew, Divia, Lex, Devi]

diff --git a/notes/memoir-sections.md b/notes/memoir-sections.md
index 56b40be..7987cb6 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/memoir-sections.md
+++ b/notes/memoir-sections.md
@@ -19,8 +19,6 @@ marked TODO blocks—
 ✓ technical discussion with Sophia
 ✓ Rob's thread, first contact with Ben [pt. 2]
 ✓ A/a alumna consult details [pt. 2]
-
-[pt. 2]
 ✓ touch up Persongen explanation 
 ✓ touch up "Helen" key photo explanation
 ✓ "Dear Totally Excellent Rationalist Friends"
@@ -29,21 +27,20 @@ marked TODO blocks—
 ✓ emails from Michael
 ✓ October 11th post
 ✓ commments on "Dear Totally Excellent Rationalist Friends"
-_ Daphne Koller and the Methods post
-_ comments on nice, mean versions
-_ mental state and visiting Divia
-_ sleepless Valentine's Day
-_ fully off the rails 15–17 February
-_ Sept. 2016 conversation with S.C.
-
-[pt. 6]
+✓ Daphne Koller and the Methods post
+✓ comments on nice, mean versions [pt. 2]
+✓ mental state and visiting Divia [pt. 2]
+
+- sleepless Valentine's Day [pt. 2]
+_ Sept. 2016 conversation with S.C. [pt. 2]
+_ fully off the rails 15–17 February [pt. 2]
+
 - Eliezerfic fight: Big Yud tests me [pt. 6]
 _ Eliezerfic fight: derail with lintamande [pt. 6]
 _ Eliezerfic fight: knives, and showing myself out [pt. 6]
 
-[pt. 2]
-_ Jan. discussion with "Wilhelm" (should also include Sep. discussion?)
-_ "model clicked"/Feb. discussion with "Wilhelm"
+_ Jan. discussion with "Wilhelm" (should also include Sep. discussion?) [pt. 2]
+_ "model clicked"/Feb. discussion with "Wilhelm" [pt. 2]
 
 _ psych ward [pt. 2]
 _ emailing Blanchard/Bailey/Hsu/Lawrence [pt. 2]
@@ -58,7 +55,6 @@ _ epistemic defense meeting [pt. 4]
 - December 2019 winter blogging vacation [pt. 4]
 _ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
 
-
 _ reaction to Ziz [pt. 4]
 _ State of Steven [pt. 4]
 _ Somni [pt. 4]
@@ -74,7 +70,7 @@ bigger blocks—
 _ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
 _ Dolphin War finish
 _ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
-_ psychiatric disaster 
+_ psychiatric disaster
 
 not even blocked—
 _ "Even our pollution is beneficial" [pt. 6]
@@ -85,17 +81,21 @@ _ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
 _ "EA" brand ate the "rationalism" brand—even visible in MIRI dialogues
 _ Anna's heel–face turn
 _ "counterfactual boyfriend"/It's California in the year 2016
-  
+_ not talking about pivotal acts, downstream of not believing in Speech?
+
 it was actually "wander onto the AGI mailing list wanting to build a really big semantic net" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9HGR5qatMGoz4GhKj/above-average-ai-scientists)
 
 With internet available—
-_ 
-_ Avatar state
+_ T4T
+_ recent EY tweet about not talking about Pivotal acts for fear of being misinterpreted
+_ someone's (Accelia's?) comment about needing a crisis in order to speak
+_ "locate it in the space of possibilities" pt. 2 (locating the hypothesis)
+_ https://avatar.fandom.com/wiki/Avatar_state ?
 _ occasions when it was genuinely on-topic (link to "Changing Emotions" comments)
 _ patterns of refactored agency
 _ check timing of comments on nice/mean versions??
 _ Castro Theatre name/spelling
-_ look back at more of the Facebook posts from meltdown
+_ look at more of the later posts from Facebook meltdown
 _ "Totally Excellent" root of the disagreement
 _ check that "Totally Excellent" comments with Noreen were all before movie date?
 _ Ben "put a Like on my comments", plural?
@@ -138,6 +138,8 @@ _ Anna's claim that Scott was a target specifically because he was good, my coun
 _ Yudkowsky's LW moderation policy
 
 far editing tier—
+_ "Noreen" discussion needs to cover the part where I'd cause less disruption if I transitioned
+_ "Noreen"'s girlfriend definitely needs to be mentioned
 _ get exact dates and correct Sequencing on late 2016 conversations
 _ mention Michael's influence and South Park recs in late 2016?
 _ probably give Amelia as pseudonym?
@@ -2372,3 +2374,8 @@ is this way currently\"",
       "timestamp_ms": 1530601116141,
       "content": "there was a NRx whose take [...] was so disagreeable that he got downvoted into oblivion on /r/slatestarcodex (and remember, /r/slatestarcodex is already pretty right-wing by San Francisco standards) who also had a post on the \"feminism appeals to masculine-of-center women\" hypothesis http://www.ericwulff.com/blog/?p=1861 which deserves more credit than it gets (it acknowledges within-group variation!)",
       "type": "Generic"
+
+
+----
+
+He doesn't want to talk about pivotal acts because because anything he says in public might be misinterpreted—but, how does the disutility of being misinterpreted plausibly outweigh the utility of someone having something useful to say?? I feel like his modern answer is some variation of "Everyone but me is retarded", but—that's not what he thought about decision theory back in 2010, when he validated/honored Wei Dai and Vladimir Nesov's contributions! (find cite) And now, he says he wish he hadn't talked about decision theory ...

diff --git a/notes/memoir_wordcounts.csv b/notes/memoir_wordcounts.csv
index 64d6eb4..619664b 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/memoir_wordcounts.csv
+++ b/notes/memoir_wordcounts.csv
@@ -339,4 +339,5 @@
 03/21/2023,102645,484\r
 03/22/2023,103844,1199\r
 03/23/2023,104987,1143\r
-03/24/2023,
\ No newline at end of file
+03/24/2023,106018,1031\r
+03/25/2023,,
\ No newline at end of file

diff --git a/notes/post_ideas.txt b/notes/post_ideas.txt
index 1335315..c20f1a6 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/post_ideas.txt
+++ b/notes/post_ideas.txt
@@ -1,13 +1,11 @@
-pre-memoir—
-_ Reply to Scott Alexander on Autogenderphilia
-_ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality (short version)
-_ Book Review: Nevada (time permitting)
-_ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress (time permitting)
 _ I'm Dropping the Pseudonym From This Blog
-
-memoir—
+_ Book Review: Nevada
 _ (pt. 2) Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer (March 2016–April 2017)
 _ (pt. 3) A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning (November 2018–April 2019)
+
+
+_ Reply to Scott Alexander on Autogenderphilia
+_ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress (time permitting)
 _ (pt. 4) If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them (April 2019–January 2021)
 _ (pt. 5) Agreeing With Stalin in Ways that Exhibit Generally Rationalist Principles (February 2021)
 _ (pt. 6) Standing Under the Same Sky (April 2021–April 2023)
@@ -17,6 +15,7 @@ _ Janet Mock on Late Transitioners
 _ Interlude XXII
 
 Minor—
+_ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality (short version)
 _ Book Review: Johnny the Walrus
 _ Beyond the Binary
 _ Happy Meal