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diff --git a/content/drafts/the-causality-of-ethnic-differences-in-covid-19-outcomes-is-an-open-empirical-question.md b/content/drafts/the-causality-of-ethnic-differences-in-covid-19-outcomes-is-an-open-empirical-question.md
index f0fea94..b5a6ee5 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/the-causality-of-ethnic-differences-in-covid-19-outcomes-is-an-open-empirical-question.md
+++ b/content/drafts/the-causality-of-ethnic-differences-in-covid-19-outcomes-is-an-open-empirical-question.md
@@ -4,11 +4,13 @@ Category: commentary
 Tags: COVID-19, causality, race
 Status: draft
 
-The ongoing pandemic which continues to disrupt—and take—lives across Society, isn't striking all segments of Society equally. In particular, [the U.S. Centers for Disease Control reports that](https://archive.is/nnWT9) black Americans are 4.7 times more likely than whites to be hospitalized, and 2.1 times as likely to die. [Sigal Samuel of _Vox_'s "Future Perfect" section writes](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/10/2/21493933/covid-19-vaccine-black-latino-priority-access):
+Well, we have COVID-19 vaccines now, but [the rollout has been vexed with difficulties](https://archive.is/2odhq). Until [the race between vaccinations and new infections](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/01/28/covid-1-28-muddling-through/) gets us to herd immunity, the pandemic will continue to disrupt—and take—lives across Society. And not all segments of Society equally: in particular, [the U.S. Centers for Disease Control reports that (as of November 2020)](https://archive.is/V23RW) black Americans are 3.7 times more likely than whites to be hospitalized, and 2.8 times as likely to die. [Sigal Samuel of _Vox_'s "Future Perfect" section writes](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/10/2/21493933/covid-19-vaccine-black-latino-priority-access):
 
 > There's nothing about being Black, in and of itself, that makes people more biologically susceptible to Covid-19. Instead, the disproportionate impact is due to an accumulation of factors from centuries of systemic racism.
 
-But how does Samuel _know_ this? I agree that an accumulation of factors from centuries of systemic racism is almost certainly going to be a significant _part_ the explanation for the observed differences. But the claim that "there's _nothing_ about being Black, in and of itself" (emphasis mine) affecting susceptibility to this disease is a _much_ stronger assertion—one that I think has a substantial probability of being false, if it turns out that one of the various minor ways in which humans vary by genetic ancestry happens to be relevant to the progression of this particular disease.
+But how does Samuel _know_ this? I agree that an accumulation of factors from centuries of systemic racism is almost certainly going to be a significant _part_ the explanation for the observed differences. But the claim that "there's _nothing_ about being Black, in and of itself" (emphasis mine) affecting susceptibility to this disease is a stronger assertion—one that I think has a substantial probability of being false, if it turns out that one of the [various minor ways in which humans vary by genetic ancestry](/2020/Apr/book-review-human-diversity/#ancestries) happens to be relevant to the progression of this particular disease.
+
+
 
 In the case of people of African descent, I think we _do_ have a specific candidate for a biological difference affecting COVID-19 outcomes. A randomized clinical trial found that 
 

diff --git a/notes/notes.txt b/notes/notes.txt
index 2a12206..1a911dc 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/notes.txt
+++ b/notes/notes.txt
@@ -2357,4 +2357,14 @@ https://www.jneurosci.org/content/34/27/9134.short
 "Severe Sleep Deprivation Causes Hallucinations and a Gradual Progression Toward Psychosis With Increasing Time Awake"
 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6048360/
 
-"Cultural Components of Sex Differences in Color Preference" Davis et al. 2021 (shared on SEXNET) says that girl preference for pink was d=1.3 in a city, but not in trad cultures
+https://childrenoftransitioners.org/2021/01/24/the-abusive-autogynephile/
+
+
+https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10158884242629598
+
+> I just read an anecdote in which someone who's never had a penis claimed that "erection states intention", which I think is definitely false and also an extremely harmful thing to incorrectly believe. But I can understand why many cisgendered heterosexual woman would have such a strong impression that this is the case. 
+
+I want to say: 'Why is the reference class here "cisgendered heterosexual women" rather than "biological females"? Cis lebians and trans men and also don't have first-person experience of erections.' ... but that's just going to get into a rabbithole of phalloplasty-penis erections count (where I haven't read the literature)
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/l4ii8x/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_25/gld6zgb/
+"trickle-down narrative economics. [...] The influence of thr NYT isnt best described in absolute value of its readership, but thr social graph of how its ideas penetrate all the way to thr bottom through more complex social networks of influence"

diff --git a/notes/post_ideas.txt b/notes/post_ideas.txt
index b3b3720..bec4bf6 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/post_ideas.txt
+++ b/notes/post_ideas.txt
@@ -1,21 +1,21 @@
 - Sexual Dimorphism in Yudkowsky's Sequences, in Relation to
 
-_ You Are Right and I Was Wrong: Reply to Tailcalled on Causality
- - The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
-_ Highlights From the Linkpost Comments (working title)
-_ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
-
+_ Reply to Emma on Coalitions, Nuance, and Subjectivity (working title)
+✓ You Are Right and I Was Wrong: Reply to Tailcalled on Causality
+- The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
 
 LW—
 - And the Wisdom to Know the Difference
 _ importance of getting the direction of causality right
+_ Multi-Level Moloch; Or, Technically, the Holocaust Was a Coordination Success
+
 philosophy-of-language replies, 
 
 Marketing channels—
 _ Reddit: /r/philosophy, /r/TheMotte, /r/theschism, /r/SneerClub
 _ tags: "The SF Bay Area", "Criticisms of the Rationalist Movement", "Postmortems & Retrospectives"
 
-
+_ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
 _ Beyond the Binary
 _ https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3936528276381860 "Natural does not always mean good." — natural does not always mean good, but at our current tech level, that's actually a really good prior
 _ Novemember 2020 Political Notes; Or, Sen. Kelly Loeffler Is Mostly Living in a Simulation Now

diff --git a/notes/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-notes.md b/notes/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-notes.md
index a6c2999..a3bd23a 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-notes.md
+++ b/notes/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-notes.md
@@ -65,6 +65,7 @@ http://zackmdavis.net/blog/2017/03/brand-rust/
 * the moment in October 2016 when I switched sides http://zackmdavis.net/blog/2016/10/late-onset/
 * detachable
 * If I want to stay aligned with women, then figuring out how to do that depends on the facts about actual sex differences; if I want to do the value-exchange suggested in 
+* The wall! That goddamned wall!
 
 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r3NHPD3dLFNk9QE2Y/search-versus-design-1
 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JBFHzfPkXHB2XfDGj/evolution-of-modularity

diff --git a/notes/trans-kids-on-the-margin-notes.md b/notes/trans-kids-on-the-margin-notes.md
index 3541c4f..6e96be2 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/trans-kids-on-the-margin-notes.md
+++ b/notes/trans-kids-on-the-margin-notes.md
@@ -40,3 +40,6 @@ https://slate.com/human-interest/2019/01/trans-kid-test-psychology.html
 https://kathleenstock.com/highlights-of-trans-policies-in-uk-universities/
 
 Symmetry: trans-booster parent thinks child is too young to know about TERFism (but isn't opposed to the idea of the child thinking for themselves when they're old enough to think critically); skeptic thinks child is too young to consent to transition (but wouldn't refuse to recognize an AGP teenager going in with open eyes)
+
+"Cultural Components of Sex Differences in Color Preference" Davis et al. 2021 (shared on SEXNET) says that girl preference for pink was d=1.3 in a city, but not in trad cultures
+http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/davis_et_al-cultural_components_of_sex_differences_in_color_preference.pdf