Sunday redemption block 3: outlining

diff --git a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
index 9a68a96..d579ff2 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
+++ b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
@@ -36,16 +36,15 @@ Is a two type typology of male-to-female transsexualism a good theory? Is it "re
 
 At the high level of taxonomy—if I have to choose between a one-type and a two-type theory—then I think the two-type theory is superior. But I also think we can do better and say more about the underlying causal structure that the simple two-types story is approximating, and hopefully explain anomalous cases that look like "noise" to the simple theory.
 
-
-In the language of causal graphs 
-
-I think I do have a pretty good guess at what's going on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph ]
+In the language of [causal graphs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph) (where the arrows point from cause to effect), here's what I think is going on:
 
 ![transition causal graph](/images/transition_dag.svg)
 
 Let me explain. 
 
-[What are the reasons transitioning could possibly make sense to someone?—]
+What are the reasons a male-to-female transition might seem like a good idea to someone? Why would a male be interested in living socially as a woman?
+
+I see three prominent reasons, depicted as the nodes 
 
 [1. actually being really feminine]
 
@@ -53,6 +52,26 @@ Let me explain.
 
 [3. cultural/ideological factors]
 
+[Threshold model]
+
+[Okay, but where do the two types come from? The graph is just showing cause-and-effect, but if this were actually a Bayes net, there would be numbers representing a probability distribution, and I claim that the distribution clusters into two types]
+
+[The sexual orientation node increases femininity and decreases AGP, so those pathways are anti-correlated; however, the fact that straight AGP men also vary somewhat in their degree of femininity; some accounts have emphasized how masculine (even hypermasculine) AGPs are, but this seems wrong]
+
+[People who don't quite seem to fit the coarse taxonomy might still be explained by the graph and a threshold model]
+
+[Why do I believe this? All six arrows in the graph are something that I think we have a huge weight of evidence for, either formally, or just looking at the world]
+
+[Sexual orientation effect on femininity documented by Lippa]
+
+[femininity->transition would be obvious even if it weren't in th]
+
+[ETLE sexual orientation AGP v-structure, and effect of AGP on transition documented by Lawrence]
+
+[I don't have a good formal citation on cultural factors, but it seems really obvious if you've been paying attention for the last decade]
+
+[quantifying the two-type effect: Lippa]
 
+[further implications: as cultural factors increase, the late-onset type becomes more of a "NOS" rather than AGP type]
 
 _(Thanks to the immortal [Tailcalled](https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/) for discussion.)_