poke (we're alive on Saturday)

diff --git a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
index 13fd243..519f366 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
+++ b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
@@ -6,21 +6,26 @@ Status: draft
 
 A lot of people tend to balk when first hearing about the [two-type taxonomy of male-to-female transsexualism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blanchard's_transsexualism_typology). What, one scoffs, you're saying _all_ trans women are exactly one of these two things? It seems at once both too simple and too specific.
 
-In some ways, it's a fair complaint! Psychology is _complicated_; every human is their own unique snowflake. But it would be impossible to navigate the world using the "every human is their own unique _maximum-entropy_ snowflake" theory.
+In some ways, it's a fair complaint! Psychology is _complicated_; every human is their own unique snowflake. But it would be impossible to navigate the world using the "every human is their own unique _maximum-entropy_ snowflake" theory. In order to [compress our observations](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mB95aqTSJLNR9YyjH/message-length) of the world we see, we end up distilling our observations into categories, clusters, diagnoses, taxons: no one matches any particular clinical-profile stereotype _exactly_, but [the world makes more sense when you have language for theoretical abstractions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions) like ["comas"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/11/does-the-glasgow-coma-scale-exist-do-comas/) or "depression" or "bipolar disorder"—or "autogynephilia".
 
-categories, clusters, diagnoses, taxons
+Concepts and theories are good to the extent that they can "pay for" their complexity by making more accurate predictions.
 
-No one matches any particular clinical-profile stereotype _exactly_, but [the world makes more sense when you have language for theoretical abstractions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions) like ["comas"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/11/does-the-glasgow-coma-scale-exist-do-comas/) or "depression" or "bipolar disorder"—or "autogynephilia".
 
 
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+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph
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 ![transition causal graph](/images/transition_dag.svg)
 
 Let me explain. 
 
 
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph
 
-[people tend to balk at the two-type taxonomy: are you really saying there are two and only two types?!]
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 [the taxonomy can emerge as a shorthand for a complicated causal graph]