outline support for "Faster Than Science"

diff --git a/content/drafts/faster-than-science-transgender-edition.md b/content/drafts/faster-than-science-transgender-edition.md
index 85a0c57..88920e0 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/faster-than-science-transgender-edition.md
+++ b/content/drafts/faster-than-science-transgender-edition.md
@@ -17,6 +17,20 @@ A conventional human scientist studying an account of such reasoning might prote
 Suppose our alien reasoner were to be informed of the fact that, among humans, some fraction of males elect to undergo medical interventions to resememble females, and aspire to be perceived as females socially. Suppose our alien reasoner were asked to hypothesize about the cause of such behavior.
 
 
+OUTLINE OF POINTS TO HIT—
+
+ * probability theory only cares about theories that predict the data
+    * don't care about predictions vs. retrodictions
+    * don't care about "jumping to conclusions" if those conclusions later turn
+      out to be correct (if the reasoning process _were_ merely jumping to
+      conclusions, then they _wouldn't_ be correct (with overwhelming
+      probability))
+ * suppose you asked aliens to explain why some humans males trans
+    * obvious hypothesis: they're really psychologically feminine due to brain intersex
+    * suppose you further said that some subset of MtTs doesn't fit this profile; what would be the next guess?
+       * Something to do with males are usually obsessed with female bodies maybe??
+
+
 REVISION NOTES—  
 
  * don't insist on it being an "ideal reasoner", just talk about an alien inference process that has a different balance of theory-drivenness vs. empiricism