drafting "Useful Approximation" ...

diff --git a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
index fc90e1a..9390dbf 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
+++ b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
@@ -16,19 +16,24 @@ The same general principles of reasoning apply to psychological theories, even t
 
 What does this look like for psychological theories? In the crudest form, when we notice a pattern of traits that go together, we give it a name. Sometimes people go through cycles of elevated arousal and hyperactivity, punctuated by pits of depression. After seeing the same distinctive patterns in many such cases, doctors decided to reify it as a diagnosis, ["bipolar disorder"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipolar_disorder).
 
-If we notice further patterns _within_ the group of cases that make up a category, we can spit it up into sub-categories: a diagnosis of bipolar I requires a full-blown manic episode, but hypomania and a major depressive episode qualify one for bipolar II.
+If we notice further patterns _within_ the group of cases that make up a category, we can spit it up into sub-categories: for example, a diagnosis of bipolar I requires a full-blown manic episode, but hypomania and a major depressive episode qualify one for bipolar II.
 
-Are bipolar I and bipolar II "really" different conditions?
+Is the two-type typology of bipolar disorder a good theory? Are bipolar I and bipolar II "really" different conditions, or slightly different presentations of "the same" condition, part of a "bipolar spectrum" along with cyclothymia? In our current state of knowledge, this is debateable! But if our understanding of the etiology of bipolar disorder were to advance, and we were to find evidence that that bipolar I has a different underlying _causal structure_ from bipolar II (with decision-relevant consequences, like responding to different treatments), that would support a policy of thinking and talking about them as mostly separate things (even while they have enough in common to both be kinds of "bipolar").
 
+With a _sufficiently_ detailed causal story, you could even dispense with the high-level categories altogether and directly talk about the consequences of different neurotransmitter counts or whatever—but lacking that supreme precise knowledge, it's useful to sum over the details into high-level categories, and meaningful to debate whether a one-type or two-type typology is a better statistical fit to the underlying reality whose fine details remain unknown.
 
+In the case of male-to-female transsexualism, we notice a pattern where androphilic and non-androphilic trans women seem to be different from each other—not just in their sexuality, but also in their age of transition, interests, and personality. Many authors have noticed this clustering of traits, [while disagreeing about the underlying causality](/2021/Feb/you-are-right-and-i-was-wrong-reply-to-tailcalled-on-causality/).
 
+[Veale-Clarke-Lomax identity-defence]
+[Vitale]
+[Serano 2020]
+[Blanchard]
 
+How seriously should we take the two-type typology?
 
+the simple story is a useful approximation even if you don't know how to pin down the more detailed story
 
-
-[In the case of male-to-female transsexualism, straight and gay trans women seem different. Many authors agree to this simple story! e.g., Veale, Vitale, possibly Serano 2020 —but they have different detailed theories as to how the two clusters come about—the simple story is a useful approximation even if you don't know how to pin down the more detailed story]
-
-[I think I do have a pretty good guess at what's going on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph ]
+I think I do have a pretty good guess at what's going on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph ]
 
 ![transition causal graph](/images/transition_dag.svg)