From: M. Taylor Saotome-Westlake Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 19:56:34 +0000 (-0800) Subject: Thursday morning drafting "Challenges": "A Rational Argument" X-Git-Url: http://534655.efjtl6rk.asia/source?a=commitdiff_plain;h=a55fa6196a69eb905eb44e5e89858044978c437d;p=Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git Thursday morning drafting "Challenges": "A Rational Argument" Last Thursday went OK (between writing and dayjob and takeout and _Star Trek: Prodigy_) and there's still time for this one to be even better, not just "OK"!! --- diff --git a/content/drafts/challenges-to-yudkowskys-pronoun-reform-proposal.md b/content/drafts/challenges-to-yudkowskys-pronoun-reform-proposal.md index 6380451..0893fd0 100644 --- a/content/drafts/challenges-to-yudkowskys-pronoun-reform-proposal.md +++ b/content/drafts/challenges-to-yudkowskys-pronoun-reform-proposal.md @@ -423,7 +423,9 @@ https://twitter.com/EnyeWord/status/1068983389716385792 [TODO outlining remainder of coda—] -Still, having analyzed the _ways_ in which Yudkowsky is playing dumb on this issue, what's still not entirely clear is _why_. Presumably Yudkowsky cares about maintaining his credibility as an insightful and fair-minded thinker. Why tarnish that by putting out such blatantly one-sided propaganda [TODO: rephrase]? Of course, presumably he _doesn't_ think he's tarnishing it—but why not? [He explains in the Facebook comments](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159421750419228?comment_id=10159421833274228&reply_comment_id=10159421901809228): +Still, having analyzed the _ways_ in which Yudkowsky is playing dumb here, what's still not entirely clear is _why_. Presumably he cares about maintaining his credibility as an insightful and fair-minded thinker. Why tarnish that by putting out this haughty performance? + +Of course, presumably he _doesn't_ think he's tarnishing it—but why not? [He explains in the Facebook comments](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159421750419228?comment_id=10159421833274228&reply_comment_id=10159421901809228): > it is sometimes personally prudent and not community-harmful to post your agreement with Stalin about things you actually agree with Stalin about, in ways that exhibit generally rationalist principles, especially because people do _know_ they're living in a half-Stalinist environment [...] I think people are better off at the end of that. @@ -433,8 +435,54 @@ Ah, _prudence_! He continues: [TODO: type out these five lines of rebuttal and then stitch them together somehow] -[Summarize "A Rational Argument" https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9f5EXt8KNNxTAihtZ/a-rational-argument -You could imagine the campaign manager saying the same thing—"I don't see what the alternative is".] +---- + +The problem with trying to "exhibit rationalist principles" in an line of argument that you're constructing in order to be prudent and not community-harmful, is that you're necessarily _not_ exhibiting the central rationalist principle that what matters is the process that _determines_ your conclusion, not the reasoning you present to _reach_ your presented conclusion, after the fact. + +The best explanation of this I know was authored by Yudkowsky himself in 2007, in a post titled ["A Rational Argument"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9f5EXt8KNNxTAihtZ/a-rational-argument). It's worth quoting at length. Yudkowsky invites us to consider the plight of a political campaign manager: + +> As a campaign manager reading a book on rationality, one question lies foremost on your mind: "How can I construct an impeccable rational argument that Mortimer Q. Snodgrass is the best candidate for Mayor of Hadleyburg?" +> +> Sorry. It can't be done. +> +> "What?" you cry. "But what if I use only valid support to construct my structure of reason? What if every fact I cite is true to the best of my knowledge, and relevant evidence under Bayes's Rule?" +> +> Sorry. It still can't be done. You defeated yourself the instant you specified your argument's conclusion in advance. + +The campaign manager is in possession of a survey of mayoral candidates on which Snodgrass compares favorably to other candidates, except for one question. The post continues (bolding mine): + +> So you are tempted to publish the questionnaire as part of your own campaign literature ... with the 11th question omitted, of course. +> +> **Which crosses the line between _rationality_ and _rationalization_.** It is no longer possible for the voters to condition on the facts alone; they must condition on the additional fact of their presentation, and infer the existence of hidden evidence. +> +> Indeed, **you crossed the line at the point where you considered whether the questionnaire was favorable or unfavorable to your candidate, before deciding whether to publish it.** "What!" you cry. "A campaign should publish facts unfavorable to their candidate?" But put yourself in the shoes of a voter, still trying to select a candidate—why would you censor useful information? You wouldn't, if you were genuinely curious. If you were flowing _forward_ from the evidence to an unknown choice of candidate, rather than flowing _backward_ from a fixed candidate to determine the arguments. + +The post then briefly discusses the idea of a "logical" argument, one whose conclusions follow from its premises. "All rectangles are quadrilaterals; all squares are quadrilaterals; therefore, all squares are rectangles" is given as an example of _illogical_ argument, even though the both premises are true (all rectangles and squares are in fact quadrilaterals) _and_ the conclusion is true (all squares are in fact rectangles). The problem is that the conclusion doesn't _follow_ from the premises; the _reason_ all squares are rectangles isn't _because_ they're both quadrilaterals. + +[TODO: everything said being true doesn't save you because it's so fragile, if you believed that the conclusion followed, you would conclude that all quads are rects] + +Yudkowsky's conception of a "rational" argument—at least, Yudkowsky's conception in 2007, which the Yudkowsky of the current year seems to disagree with—has a similar flavor: the stated reasons should be the actual reasons. The post concludes: + +> If you really want to present an honest, rational argument _for your candidate_, in a political campaign, there is only one way to do it: +> +> * _Before anyone hires you_, gather up all the evidence you can about the different candidates. +> * Make a checklist which you, yourself, will use to decide which candidate seems best. +> * Process the checklist. +> * Go to the winning candidate. +> * Offer to become their campaign manager. +> * When they ask for campaign literature, print out your checklist. +> +> Only in this way can you offer a _rational_ chain of argument, one whose bottom line was written flowing _forward_ from the lines above it. Whatever _actually_ decides your bottom line is the only thing you can _honestly_ write on the lines above. + +I remember this being pretty shocking to read back in 2007. What an alien mindset—that you can't (_can't!_) rationally argue for conclusions. + + + +[You could imagine the campaign manager saying the same thing—"I don't see what the alternative is".] + +----- + +You sometimes hear the phrase "bad faith" thrown around, This is what https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_faith means